February 06, 2013

The Weather Geeks are in Heaven

If you haven't heard, there is apparently a big snowstorm headed this way.  Below the fold is the text from the NWS.  They have gotten very verbose with this one.  You might even say animated. 


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

***POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD TO IMPACT MUCH OF
  SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI INTO SAT***

***1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
  EXCEPT AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME
  MIXING***

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A POTENTIALLY
HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND A POTENTIAL BLIZZARD THAT WILL IMPACT MUCH
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WE ARE CONFIDENT IN MUCH OF THE REGION
RECEIVING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW.  STILL TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE...BUT CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS
THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  WE ALSO EXPECT A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION BAND THAT
WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  THE BULK
OF THE STORM APPEARS TO BE IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING TIME
FRAME.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH MID LEVEL WARM AIR WORKS INTO THE
SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.  THE NAM AND SREFS ARE
MOST AGGRESSIVE SUGGESTING A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS
RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA FOR A TIME.  IF THIS OCCURS OUR
CURRENT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE TOO HIGH IN THIS REGION...BUT WE
DID TRY TO SHOW LOWER TOTALS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.  ALSO...THE ECMWF
WHICH HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IS COLDER SO WE DID LEAN MORE IN
THAT DIRECTION.  AS WE MENTIONED THOUGH...THIS IS WHERE OUR FORECAST
IS MOST UNCERTAIN.

SPECIFIC DETAILS...

SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY
MORNING AS A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE HEADS UP TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES.  THE MAIN SHOW BEGINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE AREA LOOKS TO GET
POUNDED.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPAWN SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  THIS LOW WILL UNDERGO EXPLOSIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRACKS NEAR THE BENCHMARK LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.  IN ADDITION...A STRONG HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
WILL BE SUPPLYING THE COLD AIR WHICH HAS BEEN A MISSING FEATURE IN
MANY STORMS SO FAR THIS YEAR. THE SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY MORNING
WILL BECOME STEADY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY.  THE
BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW FAR THE RAIN/SNOW LINE TEMPORARILY
ADVANCES NORTHWARD.  WE ARE PRETTY SURE THE CAPE/ISLANDS WILL CHANGE
TO RAIN AND PERHAPS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.  ITS
POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN/SNOW LINE MAKES IT INTO RHODE
ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MA IF THE LATEST NAM/SREFS ARE CORRECT.

THE MAIN SHOW LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
LOW BOMBS OUT AND TRACKS NEAR THE BENCHMARK.  MID LEVEL CENTERS
RAPIDLY CLOSE OFF WHICH WILL LEAD TO TREMENDOUS SNOWFALL RATES AND
PERHAPS EVEN SOME THUNDER ACCOMPANYING THE STORM.  WOULD EXPECT
HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WITH A
TREMENDOUS COLD CONVEYER BELT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...VERY STRONG WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WILL BE BATTERING THE
COASTAL PLAIN LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  WE
MENTIONED THAT CLIMATOLOGY WOULD FAVOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND AREAS A
BIT NORTHWEST OF THAT REGION TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE THAT SETS UP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR ON THE BACK BENT MID LEVEL WARM FRONT.  WHERE EXACTLY THAT
SETS UP WILL COME DOWN TO THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT SO ITS
IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME.  THAT IS WHY WE ARE LOOKING AT
1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE REGION...EXCEPT NEAR
THE SOUTH COAST.

TRAVEL MAY BECOME ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.  A BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
MA INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND.  THIS BLIZZARD WATCH
INCLUDES THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
50 TO 60 MPH WINDS AND CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST ONTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH
COUNTY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. IF THAT DOES HAPPEN...THINGS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW AS
LOW PRESSURE EXPLODES OFF THE COAST AND HEIGHTS CRASH.  ITS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THIS LOCATION MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY BE INCLUDED IN
THE BLIZZARD WATCH...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT THERMAL
PROFILES WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS FOR NOW.  HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR 60+ MPH WIND GUSTS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
SO WILL BE HOISTING A HIGH WIND WATCH.  AGAIN...STILL COULD SEE A
FEW HOURS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR A FOOT OR MORE OF
SNOW IN THIS REGION SO LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
POTENTIAL.

ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...SNOW WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP AND QUICKLY
CHANGE TO RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  RAIN MAY CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO
FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE LOW BOMBS OUT AND THAT REGION FLIPS TO
HEAVY WET SNOW.  ACCUMULATIONS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN IN THIS REGION
GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE OVER...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR 6+
INCHES AND PERHAPS EVEN A PERIOD OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS INTO
SATURDAY WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THE BIG CONCERN IN THAT REGION WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS THAT COULD RESULT IN
SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

Posted by: Teresa in FUN at 11:16 PM | Comments (2) | Add Comment
Post contains 890 words, total size 6 kb.

1 Stay safe. I've been following it a tad and it looks like you might get more than spanked.

Posted by: Yabu at February 07, 2013 08:51 PM (WFD9a)

2 Other than arriving about 6 hours later than predicted and being moved into the 2ft + area of snowfall, it's all moving along as predicted.  So far so good.  I'll be happy if we get through this without losing power.

Posted by: Teresa at February 08, 2013 02:56 PM (hJwgq)

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